Ron Kind and Redistricting

The Washington Post today did an interesting story about how the WI GOP may redraw the state's congressional districts. The short is it looks like Ron Kind's 3rd district will stay the same or become more democratic. This is because the state GOP may want to give Republican Rep. Sean Duffy some of Ron Kind's more Republican counties to the north and in exchange for Duffy's more democratic counties. This is would help make Duffy's district safer to hold on to, but would make getting rid of Ron Kind harder. The GOP seems to be content with staying at the GOP's 5/3 advantage within the state Congressional delegation.

After failing to unseat Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) in 2010, the GOP continues to hold out hope that it can do so in the coming years. (The seat also may come open as Kind is regularly mentioned as a potential statewide candidate.) And meanwhile, Republican Reps. Tom Petri andPaul Ryan represent marginal districts that could be vulnerable if they leave them at any point over the next decade.

Republicans could shore up Duffy, Ribble and Ryan, but it would probably mean making Petri's and Kind's districts more Democratic. In other words, it's going to be difficult to make this a map on which Republicans can hold any more than the five seats they currently hold.

First, though, the big one: Duffy's seat.

This district leans slightly Democratic and went 56 percent forPresident Obama in 2008. Long held by Democratic Rep. David Obey, it's shown a willingness to vote consistently for Democrats.

If Republicans really want to shore up Duffy's 7th district, it probably comes at the expense of improving their chances to win in Kind's southwestern 3rd district and Petri's central 6th district.

(To keep track of all the districts, be sure to check out the congressional map here.)

The GOP could move some Democratic parts of Duffy's district in Chippewa County (near Eau Claire) into Kind's district, while Duffy picks up GOP-leaning St. Croix County across the border from the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. But again, that makes Kind safer.

Republicans could also move Democratic-leaning Wood County and Portage County in the southeastern part of Duffy's district into Kind's district and/or Petri's district.